There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind that PSU is not the worst basketball team in the conference right now at the end of the season (when it’s most important). However, the standings say so and PSU gets the 11-seed in the Big Ten tournament. But what’s exciting is, everybody gets new life. PSU has the opportunity to build on their inspired play of late and make up for this disaster of a season.

The first step is today against 6-seed Minnesota, who’s NCAA at-large hopes hinges on a good performance the next few days. It’s been a disappointing season for the Gophers, too, relative to expectations. I don’t hesitate in saying this could very well be Tubby’s worst coaching job I’ve seen. Al Nolen’s academic suspension certainly didn’t help. But this team is way too talented to lay eggs in March against weaker teams, especially considering their bubble hopes.

PSU played Minnesota tough the first two meetings, but lost both of them. There really was no consistent correlation between the two games. We have not had much success against Minnesota in recent years, but there’s no doubt in my mind that PSU can win this game. However, I think much of the outcome of this game depends on Minnesota’s effort level. They present matchup problems that PSU can’t handle.

Keys for PSU:

• Handle the Gophers press, when they do, and limit TOs. 25% TO rate killed the Lions in the first meeting.
• Keep rebounding the basketball. It didn’t hurt PSU in the first two meetings, but if Minnesota outrebounds PSU, I believe that will signify Golden Gopher dominance down low with their size.
• Out shoot the Gophers from 3. Hoffarber is still hitting 48% of his threes. Babb and Battle have to produce more than Hoff and Westbrook, IMO.
• Continued Jeff Brooks’ aggressiveness. Jeff’s unstoppable when he plays within himself and with confidence. But the ticking time bomb that is his mind can always backfire on him.
• Get some valuable bench production. If PSU is going to do anything in this tournament, the bench has to show up with 10 minutes of production, not 5 minutes of liability. Frazier, Edwards, Ott, and even Woodyard and Borovnjak need to be ready to play this weekend.

Now, yes, we know about the universal rule in tournament play, but if PSU pulls out a W today, I really like how their end of the bracket is set up for the Lions to get on a little bit of a roll and make some noise. Wisconsin and Ohio State, who we haven’t beaten since 2003, are on the opposite side. PSU wouldn’t face either until the finals. Up next for PSU would be a Michigan State team, without Chris Allen.  Then would be the Hummel-less Boilers again (unless our favorite whipping boy, Northwestern, could pull out some magic themselves).  Obviously both teams are still gonna be tough, but they aren’t hopeless.

We’ll see. Hopefully we’re in for some exciting basketball (that lasts longer than a day). If this season has taught Nittany Lions fans anything, it’s we have the players to compete in this league. The first step is the Golden Gophers (tentative 7:30 tip, Big Ten Network). It’s time for the Lions to deliver on this season. It’s their last chance.

Actually, this isn’t even a preview of any kind. This is more of my general thoughts on tonight’s game. Check out KJ’s preview if you’re looking for numbers and matchups.

Penn State is playing against two top 15 teams this week. They would have had the chance to have a huge impact on how the Big Ten regular season title shook out, but Ohio State has already finished 14-4 with the 1-seed for the BTT. It starts tonight (on ESPN2), with the last road game of the year at the Breslin Center.

Penn State can win this game. Getting over the winless hump has obviously lifted a huge boulder off their shoulders, and they’ve been playing like it (albeit against Northwestern). However, PSU is not going to win if Talor Battle scores 30 points from jacking up 25 footers. I’m sure if you’re reading this that you remember I broke down the game tape from the first meeting. The flat out refusal by Penn State to even pass the ball to the low block was appalling. It cannot happen again tonight. There needs to be movement by both the players and the ball throughout the entire court, not around the perimeter.

After the first MSU game, the coaches stressed to the media how they’ve been trying to make a more concerted effort to get the ball inside. It has paid off as the Lions have won 3 of their last 4. They’ve only averaged 15 3PA those 4 games, instead of the 50 total they threw up in 2 games against Minnesota and Michigan State. Jeff Brooks and Andrew Jones have averaged 10 and 9 points respectively over that stretch, well above their 6 and 5 averages in conference play this season. These averages CAN continue tonight. MSU doesn’t have the shotblocker down low to intimidate the Lions. Why PSU was so timid the first game will always remain a mystery to me (and even then, PSU had the lead in the 2nd half playing that atrocious style of basketball). But the biggest factor for PSU is the Talor Battle effect. It is no secret Battle has haunted the Spartans, as he has scored 20, 29, 31 in his last 3 games while making 16-31 threes, many well behind the 3 point line. Izzo has his team preparing for him.

Talk about opening up the floor. Izzo practiced his team to close out on shooters 25 feet away from the hoop. Considering Travis Walton is no longer on the team, the Spartans have nobody who can stop Battle (or Tim Frazier) from penetrating. The Lions need to attack and play aggressive tonight on offense. Do not settle for 3′s. Make the extra effort to attack the rim. Tim Frazier needs to be on the floor, too. I wouldn’t mind seeing him start. He needs to get 20 minutes tonight, minimum. He is also a better defender against Lucas than Battle is, so hopefully Tim can at least keep Lucas from getting whatever the hell he wants like he did in the BJC. Lucas scored an easy 24 points on 10-15 shooting. I don’t care if Lucas gets his points, considering how inconsistent the rest of the Spartans are. Just please make him work for it.

But if the PSU’s guards are able to penetrate and force the defense’s hand, this PSU team can give MSU fits. Babb and Jackson can hit the open jumpers. Jones, who has done a much better job catching passes and finishing with authority, will be able to get buckets around the tin. The x-factor, as always, is Jeff Brooks. We all know he can score on anybody if his fragile psyche stays in the game and he plays down low. If he wanders around the perimeter and gets down on himself after a few bad plays, it’ll be yet another disappointing step back for Jeff. I wish someone will compile a 5 minute highlight tape of Jeff’s career just for Brooks to see for himself what he can do when he plays like a man in the paint. His size and quickness is nearly impossible to guard, and he’s so much more effective mixing things up.

We’ll see. I expect a very entertaining and close contest. I believe picking PSU to cover is an easy bet. However, I waited forever to come out and publicly slam DeChellis, then he went on to coach the team to 3 out of 4 wins. This optimistic post could totally backfire and PSU could get run out of town. MSU is playing at home with much more to play for. Izzo has got to be thrilled to have such a great opportunity to cure his team’s turnover bug with PSU, who still never forces any turnovers. Also, MSU’s domination on the offensive glass certainly is disturbing for DeChellis as well. That’ll need to be contained.

I got to admit, though, this is one of the first games I’ve been looking forward (and had the motivation to blog about!) in a long time. It’s a little refreshing after such a sad season.

WHO: Michigan Wolverines (7-6, 1-1)
WHERE: Bryce Jordan Center
WHEN: 7 PM
TV: ESPN2
LINE: Penn State by 2
Enemy Blog: UMHoops
Pomeroy Profile

Michigan’s season has been disastrous in the early going. A preseason top 25 team has stumbled mightily and has looked anything but. Their best win has been a 9 point home win against the Evan Turner-less Buckeyes (although no more! nice to see ET back playing). They’re in desperation mode if they want to get back to the NCAA tournament. They’ve performed terribly on the road, understandably losing to KU but also to Utah and Indiana.

While Wisconsin is one of the worst matchups for the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten, I think UM is one of the most favorable. They’re small and don’t really pose a threat on the glass. Their offense is predicated on threes and no turnovers. PSU doesn’t force turnovers anyway and it’s always easier to stop a shooting team than it is to stop a team that can dominate inside. Michigan’s defense is nothing like Minnesota/Wisconsin/Purdue, either. PSU should be able to get better shots and make them.

For no reason whatsoever, I just have a really good feeling about this game. Talor Battle on national TV against a team with no real threat to stop him…with PSU’s backs on the wall with the 0-2 start. I just think Talor’s going to go nuts. Not sure if he can top his 28 point, 13 rebound, 6 assist performance against the Wolverines his freshman year, but I’ll say he comes close. If David Jackson can keep Manny from going nuts as well, PSU could be in great shape. Or they could not guard anybody and watch UM shoot the Lions out of their own building. You never know but I’m surprisingly confident about this game. That is why I’ll take the Lions to cover the 2 point spread and win, 68-61.

Huge game for the Nittany Lions in the Jordan Center today against Bo’s Badgers. Ed DeChellis will be looking for his first career win against Bo (0-10). It is not going to come easy.

These games against the Badgers always seem hopeless to me. Wisconsin always dictates the pace of the game (usually 56 possessions or so), and Penn State has always had trouble defending them for. It generally went like this; PSU would guard for 30 seconds and watch Wisconsin get a backdoor layup. Meanwhile, Wisconsin stymies PSU’s motion offense and the Nits look terrible. They shut down Battle last year and they’ll look to do the same again.

Wisconsin looked great against the Turner-less Buckeyes on Thursday, and they already have wins against Arizona, Maryland, Duke, and Marquette. However, they’ve only played on true road game and they lost (Wisconsin GB, 88-84 in OT). We all know how dominant the Badgers are in the Kohl Center, but this UW team has to prove itself on the road if they’re for real conference title contenders this season.

Neither team has a particularly deep bench (both go 8-deep). The Badgers are led by underrated senior PG, Trevon Hughes and junior F Jon Leuer. Jason Bohannon continues his limited role as a shooter, while Jordan Taylor is a solid guard off the bench. This is going to be a tough game, but it’s one PSU can win.

I’ve long thought that PSU should try to force the pace a little bit in these games, but they never do. They won’t force turnovers on defense, and Wisconsin will make sure they don’t get 2nd opportunities. PSU is just going to have to outshoot the Badgers. They need to create good shots in the halfcourt and pressure the Badgers into bad ones on defense. If Talor Battle outplays Hughes, I think PSU has a shot. Leuer is going to be tough to guard, but I think the Lions can get enough help from other players to compensate. It would be a huge advantage if the Lions can get Leuer in foul trouble early. Tim Frazier could also be a huge factor for Penn State’s offense if he is able to penetrate around Bohannon and dish like he did against the Gophers early. A lot of good matchups in this game and it will be interesting to see how each team responds.

PREDICTION: I just can’t pick against the Badgers until PSU is able to end this painfully lopsided streak. I’ve seen too many ugly games from PSU in this series to pick them to win. I’m taking UW to cover the 4.5 with some free throws late, but I won’t be shocked if PSU comes away with a big W.

Conference play starts tonight, and the Lions open up with no cakewalk. The Golden Gophers play defense, something many opponents in the OOC schedule could not. Will the Nittany Lions be able to handle it?

Minnesota’s only real competition came in the 76 Classic and the Big Ten/ACC challenge. They did beat Butler, but they went 1-3 in those games. However, all of those games were on the road. They lost close games to Miami FL, Texas A&M, and Portland (when they were the story of college basketball).

The Golden Gophers practically returned their whole team from last year (89% returning minutes). Defensive stud Damian Johnson and offensive scorer Lawrence Westbrook return as the senior leaders. Hoffarber, Nolen, Iverson, and Sampson are back as well. The Gophers are deep (11 guys average between 9-25 MPG), tall (21st tallest team in the country), and experienced. Penn State is none of those things. Oh, boy.

Minnesota, much like last year, is still finding their way offensively. Usually Tubby just goes with the hot hand, which this year has been Blake Hoffarber (49% from behind the arc). Blake has torn PSU up in the past so the Lions must be weary of the sharpshooter. Lawrence Westbrook is the go to scorer at 12.9 PPG, but after that, it will be whoever has the hot hand. They can go inside with Sampson (8.4 PPG) or Damian Johnson (10.7 PPG).  Or they could outside with Hoffarber, Westbrook, and 6’3″ reserve Devoe Joseph, who also has had crazy success against the Lions.

But the strength of the Gophers is their defense. Pomeroy has them rated as the 2nd best defense in the entire land (behind only Texas). They like to press you and force steals, but if you successfully get into the halfcourt, they’ll swat your shots. Their defensive numbers so far have been outstanding. The Nittany Lions haven’t seen a defense nearly as good as the Gophers will bring tonight.

So can PSU win this game tonight? I guess they can, but I have no idea how they will. Here are some keys for PSU:

• Slow the game down. Minnesota’s weakness is the halfcourt game, so it’s crucial for the ball handlers to be able to beat the Minnesota press with regularity.
• Be aggressive on offense. The Nittany Lions have to get to the foul line. Minnesota’s defense is allowing their opponents to shoot 29% from 3 and 39% from 2. PSU is going to have to put up some points at the foul line. It’ll be much easier.
• Lock down their shooters. The Gophers have had ridiculous success from behind the arc against the Lions. They shot 19-29 last year in 2 games (including a record 9-9 in the game at The Barn). That obviously cannot happen if PSU expects to win.

PREDICTION: Minnesota covers the 12 point spread. Their defense is just too much for a Nittany Lions offense still struggling to find their identity. Battle could go off and I still think it wouldn’t matter (much like the VT game). Good chance this could get ugly.

A few notes…

• David Jackson, who hyperextended his knee against American, will play tonight but who knows how much. DeChellis was quoted as saying he’s 80%.
• Tim Frazier is also hobbled and will not start tonight. He turned his ankle in practice on Sunday. Chris Babb, who played well the last 2 games, will get the start. Babb’s ball-handling skills will be put to the test.
• Nittany Lions haven’t won at Williams Arena since 2001, the only time they’ve won there.

A few links…

• Check out a Q&A interview I did with From The Barn, as part of his Big Ten previews.
• The Only Colors already breaking out the tempo-free scatterplots.
• Brian Siegrist with some valuable tweets, already. I’m sure more will be coming throughout the day/game.
• Lions shuffling into Big Ten play – Jeff Rice

We got pregame links for you instead.

• KenPom Profile
• Lions looking for the gift of grab – Centre Daily
• Team brings unique style – Collegian
• GoPSUSports Release
• Forward endures bad luck in 1st season – Collegian (I really, really wish Bill Edwards was healthy)

What to look for:

• A bench – Virtually only 7 guys played against Temple. Only 6 played in the second half. Can we get Battle some rest and some of the youth some PT, please?
• Rebounding – Let’s post a 75% DReb%, please.
• 60% eFG% – First home game in 2 weeks against a team with a 4 guard lineup. We should be able to score easily.

PREDICTION: I doubt there’s a line on this game, but even if there is, I got PSU to win 76-57.

This game is going to be tougher than UVA. Temple has played some very good teams so far and has fared pretty well. They’re 5-2 with close losses to upstart St. John’s and Georgetown. They have beaten Siena and Va Tech. So their experience so far against much stronger competition has to be considered an advantage over PSU. However, Penn St is coming off a huge confidence-boosting (did you see that smile on Battle’s face?) win on the road against an ACC opponent, so we’ll see.

KenPom Profile

Temple really D’s it up. An 87 adjusted efficiency against the schedule they have played so far is very impressive. They control their defensive glass and have let their opponents’ make just 22% of their 3′s. Their opponents’ 40.6% eFG% is 9th best in the country. On offense, Temple must still be finding their way without Dionte Christmas. The only good thing Temple does on offense is take care of the ball. Senior guard Ryan Brooks is their leading scorer at 13.6 PPG, but he has gotten off to a slow start behind the arc. After hitting 41% of his 3′s last year, Brooks has only made 7 of 32 attempts this year. He scored 15 points against the Nittany Lions last year in Temple’s road win.

Temple has typically gone 8 deep in the early going of this year. Lavoy Allen is also back for the Owls. He logged 11 points and 10 rebounds in last year’s contest. Both Brooks and Allen are starters along with 6-3 G Luis Guzman and 6-4 G Juan Fernandez. 6-11 C Michael Eric started the first 4 games, but sprained his MCL. He missed the St. John’s and Va Tech games, but he returned to play only 3 minutes against Western Michigan, Temple’s last game. I’m not sure what his status is for today’s contest, but I doubt he starts. 6-9 JR Craig Williams has replaced him as a starter while he’s been out. 6-4 G Ramone Moore and 6’6 F freshman Rahlir Jefferson round out the rotation. Temple isn’t particularly big, outside of Eric, who’s banged up. But they rebound well and score 62% of their points inside the arc (14th most in the country).

I just really don’t feel good about PSU’s chances in this matchup. I think there’s a lot of potential for last year’s grind-it-out, ugly affair. If you recall last year’s loss, Stanley Pringle sprained his ankle 7 minutes into the game and PSU’s offense went to complete shit. This just feels like a time where PSU is going to look horrible, a la the Charleston Classic.

However, I don’t think we’ve ever come close to scratching the surface of this team’s potential. I don’t think there will ever be any sort of consistent inside threat from Jones, but Brooks and Edwards have shown flashes of being dominant while posting up.  Frazier continues to look more and more comfortable with Battle while they’re on the floor at the same time. Tim really set Talor up well all night in the second half of the UVA game. I also believe Babb is too good of a shooter to keep shooting at the low clip he is now (30.8%).

So this is an interesting contest that could go both ways. Temple’s defensive numbers are scary, and I’ve seen PSU look atrocious too many times in these half-court dogfights to really feel good about this game. But I’m really hoping PSU builds off their strong defensive effort against UVA. You can tell it was something DeChellis had been harping on, especially after the pitiful performance against Sacred Heart. There’s nothing too intimidating about Temple’s offense or their lineup. Penn State has the athleticism to lock these guys down…but will they be able to jumpstart the O?

PREDICTION: Temple 58 Penn State 53. If Talor Battle gets that mojo going, though, he’s gonna make me look like a fool.

Be sure to check out this game’s perspective from the Enemy’s blog, The Owl’s Nest.

Penn State has a big opportunity tonight to help the Big Ten get out to a good start. A road win for the conference in this Challenge is huge. But not only is this a great opportunity for PSU to help the conference, it’s also a good chance to showcase themselves. The game is on national TV (ESPN2) on a night with no games of importance. It’s obviously not going to be huge TV draw or anything, but it’s most likely that national sportswriters and voters will be tuning in. It would be nice to deliver a good performance for the program, but it’s not going to come easy. I’m really looking forward to this game because it is a great measuring stick for where this team is at. They have to be able to perform on the road to have any sort of success on this season. The Charleston Classic was a disaster, but this is a chance for PSU to bounce back from it.

Virginia’s program is in a transitional state. Tony Bennett is in his first year after taking over the program from former coach Dave Leitao. UVA went 10-18 last year and 4-12 in the ACC. However, they essentially returned everyone (89% of their minutes), and despite their W/L totals, they were not horrible (only -.1 efficiency margin). Bennett has walked into a similar situation than the one he began with at Washington State. He took over his dad’s 4-14 team in the Pac-10 in 07-08 and led them to a miraculous turnaround of 15-3. Granted, I don’t think UVA has the talent of Derrick Low, Kyle Weaver, Aron Baynes, and Ivory Clark returning, but they do have reigning ACC Rookie of the Year Sylven Landesburg. It’s tough to really forecast how good UVA is and will be, but it’s very likely they’ll improve from last year.

So far, UVA has gone 4-2 with losses to South Florida and Stanford. They’re coming off a comeback win over Cleveland State thanks to a walk-on’s career night. Check out their KenPom report here. They’ve done a great job limiting their opponents’ offensive rebounds, taking care of the ball on offense, and preventing their opponents’ from going to the foul line. They aren’t going to play fast and it’s likely that this will be a half-court game.

The Cavaliers are led by Landesburg. The 6-6 wing can do everything, averaging 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists a game. He is not quite as good as Evan Turner, but he has a very similar game. Bennett has talked about him running the point, as well. Jackson or Brooks are going to have a tough time containing him. The help defense has got to be on point tonight when Landesburg makes his way into the lane. Sammy Zeglinski, 6-0 Soph from Philly, is the PG. He’s not too big of a scorer (8.8 PPG), but he can shoot it (33 of his 53 points on the year have come from treys). Mike Scott, 6-8 Junior, is the big man for the Cavs. He’s gotten off to the start many hoped from Andrew Jones (12.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG). Former PSU prospect, Mustapha Farrakhan (6-4 Jr) is another starter on the wing. He’s averaging 9.1 PPG and he can also hit the 3. UVA, much like PSU, is still trying to figure out a regular rotation. Assane Sene was suspended for the first 3 games of the year, so he’s working his way back into the rotation. He has only averaged 10 MPG in his first 3 games this season, after starting 16 games as a freshman last year. The 7-footer is foul prone, but he is a good shot-blocker. Jeff Jones, another 6-4 G, could be another starter. He’s averaging 7.1 PPG, but is only shooting 40% from the field and 30% from 3.

The wildcard on UVA’s roster is Will Sherrill, 6-9 walk-on Jr. As I mentioned, UVA escaped Cleveland State with a career game from Sherrill. Check out his statline: 18 points (7-9 shooting, 4-5 from 3), 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and 0 turnovers in 24 minutes. It’s very likely that Sherrill will never put those numbers up again, but who knows what his role is going to be for the Cavs. He went from not even playing in the opener to putting up those numbers in game 6.

Keys to the Game:

• Will PSU be able to crash the boards? A usual strength for DeChellis squads hasn’t been so this season. The Lions have only grabbed 31.1% of their misses. These early season stats can be out of whack, but this will be a great test of the Lions’ rebounding ability. UVA doesn’t give up second chances. If PSU is limited to 1 shot a possession, I don’t like the Lions chances of winning.
• Will PSU get locked into a shooting contest? The Cavaliers usually double the post at all times. This could cause big problems for PSU. There has to be some balance to PSU’s motion offense. They cannot get locked into chucking up 3′s all night. Maybe they’ll catch fire and sneak away with a win, but after seeing this team shoot the ball in Charleston, it’s not likely that will happen.
• How well will PSU’s guards be able to penetrate? I don’t see how UVA will be able to handle the Lions’ backcourt quickness. But then again, will the guards be able to create effectively once they penetrate? Frazier has really struggled to distribute the rock once he gets in the heart of the defense.
• How well can PSU contain Landesburg (if they can at all)? I can see Landesburg’s penetration causing all sorts of breakdowns on defense.
• Will PSU be able to force turnovers? Not likely, but I think this is a must for Penn State. They don’t do a good job of forcing turnovers in the first place, but PSU will need opportunities to score in transition. Those start with creating turnovers on defense. PSU can’t get locked into a painfully slow paced game.

PREDICTION: I’m never comfortable picking PSU to win road games until they prove themselves (especially with this young team). They haven’t yet, so I’ll take UVA to win, but PSU to cover the 6 point spread (for the contest).

Some notes…

*Adam Highberger broke his finger in practice on Friday and is out 3-4 weeks. Tough break for the guy who just hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Once it looked like he was going to crack the rotation, he suffers another setback. It has really switched up practice teams, since Highberger held down the 2nd team PG spot so Frazier could work with the 1st team.

*Penn State will be in the 2010 76 Classic in Anaheim. The field includes Oklahoma State, Stanford, Virginia Tech, DePaul, UNLV, Tulsa, and CS-Northridge.

Pregame Reading

• Lions gear for ACC foe – CDT
• UVA faces PSU in Big 10/ACC Challenge – Charlottesville Daily
• Lions seek key road victory in Challenge – Collegian
• Penn State Preview – The Great Blog of Virginia

Penn State plays tonight against Sacred Heart at 6 PM on the BTN. Over/Under on crowd attendance is set at 1000.

Jon Crispin is calling the game.

Sacred Heart was picked below Robert Morris in the NEC, so I’m not expecting too much of a contest. They’re 2-2 on the year, but their last game was a 105-65 drubbing at Xavier.

Here’s some things I’ll be looking for from Penn State:

• Jeff Brooks needs to take at least 10 shots, with only 2 from the perimeter. He’s proven himself as far as I’m concerned so far, he at least deserves a greater role in the offense. He’s shooting at a 60% clip, but only takes 8 FGA a game. I want to see if he can do more. There’s no doubt in my mind he can score at least 20 sometime with the way he has played. Here’s a CDT article about Jeff.
• Andrew Jones looking like a Big Ten big man, who’s been in the program for 4 years. Can you at least establish some position in the paint so we can get you the rock?
• Chris Babb finding his stroke again in the friendly confines of the BJC.
• Bill Edwards’ game. Observers praised his aggressiveness in his first collegiate game against Davidson. Can’t wait to see how good Bill is.
• INSPIRED TEAM DEFENSE, PLEASE.
• The bench getting some good run, particularly Highberger and Borovnjak.

PREDICTION: Slow start for the Nittany Lions, but PSU runs away in the second half. SHU reserves make it closer, late. PSU wins 75-63.

The first game in the bracket is the North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks. The game tips off today at 4 on ESPNU. If you’re in State College and you don’t get ESPNU, you should hit up Rotelli’s downtown. $1 slices and $0.40 wings during the game.

UNCW has gotten off to rough start to the season, dropping games to Appalachian State on the road and at home to George Washington. They were also picked to finish last in the CAA. So on paper, they don’t appear to be any good. They won just 7 games last year and went 3-15 in the CAA. Two of their starters from last year transferred, but Chad Tomko, their best player, returned and John Fields, a transfer from East Carolina, is eligible. DeChellis in his post-game Monday was really hyping up UNCW as the best team we would have played so far, but I’m not sure if that’s just ED trying to get his guys focused. This game is critical to the non-con RPI. We do not want to end up in the loser’s bracket of this tournament, so I’m not sure how much validity there is to ED’s statements.

UNCW is coached by Benny Moss, in his fourth year. He’s had an up-and-down go of it so far, winning just 7 games last year and his first season, but won 20 games his second season. One would expect that he’s on the hot seat this year. They play at a faster tempo than the first two opponents, averaging 71.2 possessions/game last year and 75 in the first two games this season. Last year, they couldn’t get to the foul line and they were terrible on the boards. They gave up 33.4% of their defensive rebounds to their opponents, while only grabbing 25.3% of available offensive boards. They’ve done much better so far this season, however.

Projected Starters:

• G – #5 Chad Tomko – 5-11 Jr
• G – #14 Johnny Wolf – 6-3 Sr
• F – #21 Dominique Lacey – 6-7 Jr
• F – #24 Will Ohuaregbe – 6-8 Fr
• F – #32 John Fields – 6-9 Jr

Those are my guesses as starters, but they could definitely change. Tomko is coming off of foot surgery so I’m not sure what his status is. He’ll play but who knows how much, he might not start. John Fields is coming off a one game suspension for a flagrant foul at the end of their first game. Who knows if he’ll start or if Moss will have him come off the bench as a discipline measure. Also, they played 13 guys against Appalachian State and 12 guys against George Washington. They’re obviously figuring out their rotation much like we are.

This will be the first time ever that Fields and Tomko will be on the floor at the same time for the Seahawks. Fields averaged 9.5 PPG and 5.5 RPG in his two years at East Carolina. He dropped 21 points (14 shots) and 7 rebounds against Appalachian State his first game of the year. Tomko averaged 15.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 4.4 APG last season, so it appears the Seahawks got a nice 1-2 punch going on. Tomko scored 13 points off the bench against GW in his first game of the year. Ahmad Grant (6-3 Jr), Montez Downey (6-5 Sr), Darryl Felder (6-3 Jr), and Keith Rendleman (6-6 Fr) will be the first guys off the bench (unless they start).

They have some size and experience, but this is game PSU should (and must) win. I’d personally like to see PSU force more turnovers and crash the boards. UNCW has given up an 86% Free Throw Rate in the first two games, but I’m not sure how much of that is their fault. Both games had over 50 calls combined, plus the games were close so intentional fouling at the end probably occurred. But if PSU is aggressive, it looks like they could get to the line a lot. We would have to convert, obviously, if we do.

PREDICTION: I’ll take PSU 83-66 in a faster paced game than the first two. I guess that means I’ll take PSU to cover the -11 line.

NOTE: Talor Battle is 13 point away from 1,000 for his career

PREGAME LINKS:

• Lions take show on road – CDT
• Team to face test on road – Collegian
• Lions vie for time on court – Collegian
• GoPSUSports Release
• Enemy Blog