There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind that PSU is not the worst basketball team in the conference right now at the end of the season (when it’s most important). However, the standings say so and PSU gets the 11-seed in the Big Ten tournament. But what’s exciting is, everybody gets new life. PSU has the opportunity to build on their inspired play of late and make up for this disaster of a season.

The first step is today against 6-seed Minnesota, who’s NCAA at-large hopes hinges on a good performance the next few days. It’s been a disappointing season for the Gophers, too, relative to expectations. I don’t hesitate in saying this could very well be Tubby’s worst coaching job I’ve seen. Al Nolen’s academic suspension certainly didn’t help. But this team is way too talented to lay eggs in March against weaker teams, especially considering their bubble hopes.

PSU played Minnesota tough the first two meetings, but lost both of them. There really was no consistent correlation between the two games. We have not had much success against Minnesota in recent years, but there’s no doubt in my mind that PSU can win this game. However, I think much of the outcome of this game depends on Minnesota’s effort level. They present matchup problems that PSU can’t handle.

Keys for PSU:

• Handle the Gophers press, when they do, and limit TOs. 25% TO rate killed the Lions in the first meeting.
• Keep rebounding the basketball. It didn’t hurt PSU in the first two meetings, but if Minnesota outrebounds PSU, I believe that will signify Golden Gopher dominance down low with their size.
• Out shoot the Gophers from 3. Hoffarber is still hitting 48% of his threes. Babb and Battle have to produce more than Hoff and Westbrook, IMO.
• Continued Jeff Brooks’ aggressiveness. Jeff’s unstoppable when he plays within himself and with confidence. But the ticking time bomb that is his mind can always backfire on him.
• Get some valuable bench production. If PSU is going to do anything in this tournament, the bench has to show up with 10 minutes of production, not 5 minutes of liability. Frazier, Edwards, Ott, and even Woodyard and Borovnjak need to be ready to play this weekend.

Now, yes, we know about the universal rule in tournament play, but if PSU pulls out a W today, I really like how their end of the bracket is set up for the Lions to get on a little bit of a roll and make some noise. Wisconsin and Ohio State, who we haven’t beaten since 2003, are on the opposite side. PSU wouldn’t face either until the finals. Up next for PSU would be a Michigan State team, without Chris Allen.  Then would be the Hummel-less Boilers again (unless our favorite whipping boy, Northwestern, could pull out some magic themselves).  Obviously both teams are still gonna be tough, but they aren’t hopeless.

We’ll see. Hopefully we’re in for some exciting basketball (that lasts longer than a day). If this season has taught Nittany Lions fans anything, it’s we have the players to compete in this league. The first step is the Golden Gophers (tentative 7:30 tip, Big Ten Network). It’s time for the Lions to deliver on this season. It’s their last chance.

Conference play starts tonight, and the Lions open up with no cakewalk. The Golden Gophers play defense, something many opponents in the OOC schedule could not. Will the Nittany Lions be able to handle it?

Minnesota’s only real competition came in the 76 Classic and the Big Ten/ACC challenge. They did beat Butler, but they went 1-3 in those games. However, all of those games were on the road. They lost close games to Miami FL, Texas A&M, and Portland (when they were the story of college basketball).

The Golden Gophers practically returned their whole team from last year (89% returning minutes). Defensive stud Damian Johnson and offensive scorer Lawrence Westbrook return as the senior leaders. Hoffarber, Nolen, Iverson, and Sampson are back as well. The Gophers are deep (11 guys average between 9-25 MPG), tall (21st tallest team in the country), and experienced. Penn State is none of those things. Oh, boy.

Minnesota, much like last year, is still finding their way offensively. Usually Tubby just goes with the hot hand, which this year has been Blake Hoffarber (49% from behind the arc). Blake has torn PSU up in the past so the Lions must be weary of the sharpshooter. Lawrence Westbrook is the go to scorer at 12.9 PPG, but after that, it will be whoever has the hot hand. They can go inside with Sampson (8.4 PPG) or Damian Johnson (10.7 PPG).  Or they could outside with Hoffarber, Westbrook, and 6’3″ reserve Devoe Joseph, who also has had crazy success against the Lions.

But the strength of the Gophers is their defense. Pomeroy has them rated as the 2nd best defense in the entire land (behind only Texas). They like to press you and force steals, but if you successfully get into the halfcourt, they’ll swat your shots. Their defensive numbers so far have been outstanding. The Nittany Lions haven’t seen a defense nearly as good as the Gophers will bring tonight.

So can PSU win this game tonight? I guess they can, but I have no idea how they will. Here are some keys for PSU:

• Slow the game down. Minnesota’s weakness is the halfcourt game, so it’s crucial for the ball handlers to be able to beat the Minnesota press with regularity.
• Be aggressive on offense. The Nittany Lions have to get to the foul line. Minnesota’s defense is allowing their opponents to shoot 29% from 3 and 39% from 2. PSU is going to have to put up some points at the foul line. It’ll be much easier.
• Lock down their shooters. The Gophers have had ridiculous success from behind the arc against the Lions. They shot 19-29 last year in 2 games (including a record 9-9 in the game at The Barn). That obviously cannot happen if PSU expects to win.

PREDICTION: Minnesota covers the 12 point spread. Their defense is just too much for a Nittany Lions offense still struggling to find their identity. Battle could go off and I still think it wouldn’t matter (much like the VT game). Good chance this could get ugly.

A few notes…

• David Jackson, who hyperextended his knee against American, will play tonight but who knows how much. DeChellis was quoted as saying he’s 80%.
• Tim Frazier is also hobbled and will not start tonight. He turned his ankle in practice on Sunday. Chris Babb, who played well the last 2 games, will get the start. Babb’s ball-handling skills will be put to the test.
• Nittany Lions haven’t won at Williams Arena since 2001, the only time they’ve won there.

A few links…

• Check out a Q&A interview I did with From The Barn, as part of his Big Ten previews.
• The Only Colors already breaking out the tempo-free scatterplots.
• Brian Siegrist with some valuable tweets, already. I’m sure more will be coming throughout the day/game.
• Lions shuffling into Big Ten play – Jeff Rice