There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind that PSU is not the worst basketball team in the conference right now at the end of the season (when it’s most important). However, the standings say so and PSU gets the 11-seed in the Big Ten tournament. But what’s exciting is, everybody gets new life. PSU has the opportunity to build on their inspired play of late and make up for this disaster of a season.

The first step is today against 6-seed Minnesota, who’s NCAA at-large hopes hinges on a good performance the next few days. It’s been a disappointing season for the Gophers, too, relative to expectations. I don’t hesitate in saying this could very well be Tubby’s worst coaching job I’ve seen. Al Nolen’s academic suspension certainly didn’t help. But this team is way too talented to lay eggs in March against weaker teams, especially considering their bubble hopes.

PSU played Minnesota tough the first two meetings, but lost both of them. There really was no consistent correlation between the two games. We have not had much success against Minnesota in recent years, but there’s no doubt in my mind that PSU can win this game. However, I think much of the outcome of this game depends on Minnesota’s effort level. They present matchup problems that PSU can’t handle.

Keys for PSU:

• Handle the Gophers press, when they do, and limit TOs. 25% TO rate killed the Lions in the first meeting.
• Keep rebounding the basketball. It didn’t hurt PSU in the first two meetings, but if Minnesota outrebounds PSU, I believe that will signify Golden Gopher dominance down low with their size.
• Out shoot the Gophers from 3. Hoffarber is still hitting 48% of his threes. Babb and Battle have to produce more than Hoff and Westbrook, IMO.
• Continued Jeff Brooks’ aggressiveness. Jeff’s unstoppable when he plays within himself and with confidence. But the ticking time bomb that is his mind can always backfire on him.
• Get some valuable bench production. If PSU is going to do anything in this tournament, the bench has to show up with 10 minutes of production, not 5 minutes of liability. Frazier, Edwards, Ott, and even Woodyard and Borovnjak need to be ready to play this weekend.

Now, yes, we know about the universal rule in tournament play, but if PSU pulls out a W today, I really like how their end of the bracket is set up for the Lions to get on a little bit of a roll and make some noise. Wisconsin and Ohio State, who we haven’t beaten since 2003, are on the opposite side. PSU wouldn’t face either until the finals. Up next for PSU would be a Michigan State team, without Chris Allen.  Then would be the Hummel-less Boilers again (unless our favorite whipping boy, Northwestern, could pull out some magic themselves).  Obviously both teams are still gonna be tough, but they aren’t hopeless.

We’ll see. Hopefully we’re in for some exciting basketball (that lasts longer than a day). If this season has taught Nittany Lions fans anything, it’s we have the players to compete in this league. The first step is the Golden Gophers (tentative 7:30 tip, Big Ten Network). It’s time for the Lions to deliver on this season. It’s their last chance.

Going into the game, I really believed PSU didn’t have a chance. But the Nittany Lions showed some toughness on the road and lost a hard-fought game to a supposedly much better team.

It didn’t look like it was going to be that way at the start. PSU looked dreadful in the first 10 minutes or so of the game as Minnesota raced out to a 21-10 lead. The offense was sputtering and Minnesota was getting further and further ahead. Stephen Bardo, the ESPN color guy, pointed to the foul on a Chris Babb 3-pointer as the turning point for PSU. Talor Battle hit a 3 on the next possession and PSU cut the lead to 5, but what seemed to be forgotten was Minnesota then extended their lead back to 10 at 26-16. I thought Tim Frazier was a huge key to why PSU stayed in the game in the first half. He came in and had 3 pretty assists that set up easy baskets in the half-court offense, something PSU wasn’t able to get before (except for a few long range jumpers from Battle). They went into halftime down only 7, a moral victory considering their play.

But a different PSU team came to play in the 2nd half. The Nittany Lions came out roaring to start the second half, as they hit their first 7 field goals. In the first 7 minutes, PSU outscored the Gophers 17-5 as they jumped out to a 44-39 lead. Talor Battle only contributed 2 of the 17 points. The damage was done mostly by Drew Jones and Jeff Brooks, who were getting great looks inside and finishing. It was exciting and encouraging to watch.

Minnesota weathered the early storm to the half as Hoffarber and Westbrook really started to get going, but PSU wouldn’t go away. Frazier hit a pretty 8 foot floater on a fast break and Battle then hit one of his patented 30-footers. The score was in PSU’s favor at 53-50 with 9 minutes left, when the turnovers came at all the wrong times. Minnesota stepped up the pressure and the Lions weren’t able to handle it, whether it was fatigue, inexperience, or inability to hang onto the rock. They turned it over on 4 straight possessions.

David Jackson did his best to keep PSU in it, hitting a big 3 to tie it at 56, but that’s when a huge swing really killed PSU. First, after struggling with the full-court pressure, PSU finally beat it until Andrew Jones couldn’t finish a contested dunk. That was a momentum killer, as Minnesota grabbed the board, raced down to court, and scored on a putback. PSU beat the pressure yet again, but Jeff Brooks took an ill-advised elbow jumper that he missed. It was a shot that even if he made it, I think DeChellis still would’ve been fuming. Penn State was playing into Minnesota’s fullcourt game, which is exactly what ED didn’t want to do, especially at such a critical point in the game. Jackson and Battle hit some big shots to keep PSU in it, but another turnover by Chris Babb (or should I say he got tripped and there was no call) was killer. It didn’t help that PSU couldn’t stop Westbrook, who scored 29 points (11-16 from the floor). Battle was guarding him most of the night, but it’s hard to be critical of a player’s defense when he had to play all 40 minutes. He’s understandably not going to be able to exert the necessary defensive pressure down the stretch. DeChellis finally put DJ on Westbrook towards the end of the game, but his damage was already done.

All in all it was a very encouraging performance, but the turnovers killed the Lions down the stretch. After making the first 7 shots on their first 7 possessions of the 2nd half, PSU finished with 9 turnovers in the remaining 12 minutes of play. Westbrook and Hoffarber hit some timely threes that put away the game.

Player Bullets

• Talor Battle – 40 minutes, 23 points (7-14/5-8), 6 rebounds, 4 assists. Quality game from Talor, but too many minutes prevented him from stopping Westbrook. Or at least attempt to make it more difficult for him.
• Andrew Jones – 12 points and 8 rebounds. His best game of the year, but that missed dunk was a big play down the stretch. Hopefully Drew builds off this game after such a lackluster non-conference performance.
• Jeff Brooks – 9 points, 4 assists, 2 rebounds and 2 steals. Jeff played well, but I thought he could’ve been a little more assertive. Those are some good numbers for Jeff, but it didn’t feel like he had that great of an impact on the game to me.
• David Jackson – 11 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists. I thought David did exactly what we needed him to do. He made big plays down the stretch as he tried to keep the Lions in it. His confidence was rising as he created a pretty 15 foot baseline jumper off the bounce to cut MN’s lead to 2. Didn’t seem hampered at all with the hyperextended knee.
• Chris Babb – played OK. He doesn’t have the green light to shoot anymore, as he only took 4 3-pointers (box score says 3, he was fouled on the other). I thought he did OK handling the ball as well, but his turnover (whether he got tripped or not) was killer.
• Tim Frazier – played great in the first half to get PSU back in it, but he was credited for 3 turnovers in the 2nd half. It didn’t look like he was slowed down at all from a ‘turned ankle’, but DeChellis only played him for 13 minutes.
• Andrew Ott – gave a forgettable 5 minutes. At least Drew got some rest.
• Bill Edwards – struggled heavily in his first BT game. He forced the issue quite a few times. He’s an above average ball-handler for a guy his size, but I’m pretty sure DeChellis doesn’t want him breaking a press by himself. He still contributed with 2 big putbacks in the 2nd half. I thought it was pretty telling of the coaching staff’s confidence in him when ED had Bill in there for the last 3 minutes of the game instead of Jeff, who had been playing better.

Always disappointing to lose road games that you had a chance to win in the 2nd half, but this was a great early experience for the team. Despite the loss, there was a lot of good that came out of it. The question now is can the supporting cast build off their performances? If Jones/Jackson/Brooks contribute like they did in this game, this team can win some games in this league. We’ll see if they can break the streak against those damn Bo Ryan Badgers tomorrow.

]]> http://www.battledoesitagain.com/2010/01/02/minnesota-75-psu-70/feed/ 0 http://www.battledoesitagain.com/2009/12/29/minnesota-preview/ http://www.battledoesitagain.com/2009/12/29/minnesota-preview/#comments Tue, 29 Dec 2009 16:22:39 +0000 Eric http://www.battledoesitagain.com/?p=1783
• WHO: Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-3)
• WHERE: Williams Arena aka The Barn
• WHEN: 9:00 PM
• TV: ESPN2
• LINE: Minnesota by 12
• Enemy Blog: From the Barn
• Pomeroy Profile

Conference play starts tonight, and the Lions open up with no cakewalk. The Golden Gophers play defense, something many opponents in the OOC schedule could not. Will the Nittany Lions be able to handle it?

Minnesota’s only real competition came in the 76 Classic and the Big Ten/ACC challenge. They did beat Butler, but they went 1-3 in those games. However, all of those games were on the road. They lost close games to Miami FL, Texas A&M, and Portland (when they were the story of college basketball).

The Golden Gophers practically returned their whole team from last year (89% returning minutes). Defensive stud Damian Johnson and offensive scorer Lawrence Westbrook return as the senior leaders. Hoffarber, Nolen, Iverson, and Sampson are back as well. The Gophers are deep (11 guys average between 9-25 MPG), tall (21st tallest team in the country), and experienced. Penn State is none of those things. Oh, boy.

Minnesota, much like last year, is still finding their way offensively. Usually Tubby just goes with the hot hand, which this year has been Blake Hoffarber (49% from behind the arc). Blake has torn PSU up in the past so the Lions must be weary of the sharpshooter. Lawrence Westbrook is the go to scorer at 12.9 PPG, but after that, it will be whoever has the hot hand. They can go inside with Sampson (8.4 PPG) or Damian Johnson (10.7 PPG).  Or they could outside with Hoffarber, Westbrook, and 6’3″ reserve Devoe Joseph, who also has had crazy success against the Lions.

But the strength of the Gophers is their defense. Pomeroy has them rated as the 2nd best defense in the entire land (behind only Texas). They like to press you and force steals, but if you successfully get into the halfcourt, they’ll swat your shots. Their defensive numbers so far have been outstanding. The Nittany Lions haven’t seen a defense nearly as good as the Gophers will bring tonight.

So can PSU win this game tonight? I guess they can, but I have no idea how they will. Here are some keys for PSU:

• Slow the game down. Minnesota’s weakness is the halfcourt game, so it’s crucial for the ball handlers to be able to beat the Minnesota press with regularity.
• Be aggressive on offense. The Nittany Lions have to get to the foul line. Minnesota’s defense is allowing their opponents to shoot 29% from 3 and 39% from 2. PSU is going to have to put up some points at the foul line. It’ll be much easier.
• Lock down their shooters. The Gophers have had ridiculous success from behind the arc against the Lions. They shot 19-29 last year in 2 games (including a record 9-9 in the game at The Barn). That obviously cannot happen if PSU expects to win.

PREDICTION: Minnesota covers the 12 point spread. Their defense is just too much for a Nittany Lions offense still struggling to find their identity. Battle could go off and I still think it wouldn’t matter (much like the VT game). Good chance this could get ugly.

A few notes…

• David Jackson, who hyperextended his knee against American, will play tonight but who knows how much. DeChellis was quoted as saying he’s 80%.
• Tim Frazier is also hobbled and will not start tonight. He turned his ankle in practice on Sunday. Chris Babb, who played well the last 2 games, will get the start. Babb’s ball-handling skills will be put to the test.
• Nittany Lions haven’t won at Williams Arena since 2001, the only time they’ve won there.

A few links…

• Check out a Q&A interview I did with From The Barn, as part of his Big Ten previews.
• The Only Colors already breaking out the tempo-free scatterplots.
• Brian Siegrist with some valuable tweets, already. I’m sure more will be coming throughout the day/game.
• Lions shuffling into Big Ten play – Jeff Rice